Andy Burnham is currently navigating a complicated path towards potentially securing the Labour leadership, and it’s anything but straightforward. Imagine a marble perched precariously at the start of an intricate and winding track. If it successfully rolls all the way to the end, it could lead Burnham to the role of prime minister. But let’s pause and consider the hurdles ahead. This marble might never even leave the starting point or could veer off course unexpectedly midway.
The challenges that lie between the Greater Manchester mayor and a return to Westminster as a Member of Parliament (MP) – which is essential for him to contest the leadership against Sir Keir Starmer – are significant. The first step for Burnham is to determine whether he wants to pursue this opportunity at all. On the positive side, the potential contest is set in his own backyard of Greater Manchester, making it a familiar battleground.
Moreover, this situation has arisen due to the resignation of an MP on health-related grounds, which complicates any arguments from his adversaries that this is merely a strategic political move. However, if Burnham chooses to run, he'll need to seek the approval of the Labour Party's National Executive Committee (NEC). According to the party rule book, this committee must grant its "express permission" before a directly elected mayor can be nominated as a Labour candidate for Parliament.
This means the NEC could simply decline his request, arguing that a costly mayoral election could present political complications. Additionally, there are factions within Labour who might prefer he stays away from Westminster, viewing his recent political maneuvers as unnecessary.
Yet, there’s no denying that many within the Labour ranks see Burnham as a potential savior for a party and a government currently facing significant challenges. Now, if he were to be turned down by the NEC – think of that marble careening off the track – what would his next move be? He possesses enough visibility and influence to significantly impact the Prime Minister should he decide to take action.
Should he actually enter the race? The upcoming by-election is expected to garner immense attention. Andrew Gwynne recently secured the Gorton and Denton constituency with ease in the last general election, but Labour's standing has since declined sharply. Reform UK and the Green Party emerged as formidable contenders, finishing second and third in the prior election, and many believe they could pose an even greater challenge this time.
Reform's leader, Nigel Farage, wasted no time in responding to the situation, stating, "This by-election is by no means a certainty for Labour; the leftist Greens will split their vote, and we will emerge as the main challenger. We will put forth our best effort." Even if Burnham were to be the Labour candidate, it's uncertain whether he would manage to reclaim a Westminster seat.
However, this may be one of his only opportunities to return to Westminster from a constituency where he’s well-known, especially considering the current vulnerabilities of the Prime Minister and the ongoing discussions among Labour MPs about future leadership options.
Now, let’s picture a scenario where he is indeed Labour’s candidate and wins the election. It’s quite possible he would step into Parliament just as Labour faces setbacks in elections across Scotland, Wales, and various regions in England come May. He would find himself seated among his peers at a time when many in the Labour party anticipate the Prime Minister facing his most challenging period yet. Would this be the moment when Burnham positions himself as a serious contender for Labour's leadership alongside other candidates?
As I mentioned, this marble run is long and convoluted. However, it has the potential to become the political spectacle of the spring, drawing significant public interest and debate.
