2026 Winter Olympics men’s hockey standings and forecast
Men’s Olympic hockey starts Wednesday, with 12 nations competing in this year’s tournament. The NHL is allowing its players to participate for the first time since 2014, making this one of the most anticipated events of the Games.
**Current Standings (Group Rank, Games Played, Goal Diff, Pts)
1. United States (C1, 0, 0, 0)
2. Switzerland (A1, 0, 0, 0)
3. Sweden (B1, 0, 0, 0)
4. Canada (A2, 0, 0, 0)
5. Finland (B2, 0, 0, 0)
6. Germany (C2, 0, 0, 0)
7. Czech Republic (A3, 0, 0, 0)
8. Denmark (C3, 0, 0, 0)
9. Slovakia (B3, 0, 0, 0)
10. Latvia (C4, 0, 0, 0)
11. France (A4, 0, 0, 0)
12. Italy (B4, 0, 0, 0)
**Automatic Berth into Quarterfinals
- United States
- Switzerland
- Sweden
- Canada
**Play-in Game to Quarterfinals
- Finland
- Germany
- Czech Republic
- Denmark
- Slovakia
- Latvia
- France
- Italy
**Updated: February 9, 2026 at 8:02 p.m. E.T.
**Canada and the United States are strong gold medal favorites, but a host of European contenders also have a real chance at gold or silver. (Russia, a perennial medal contender, was banned from this year’s tournament.)
**Team-by-Team Forecast
| Team | Quarter Finals | Semi Finals | Bronze | Silver | Gold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | >99% | 87% | 17% | 23% | 42% |
| United States | >99% | 86% | 18% | 26% | 37% |
| Sweden | 98% | 68% | 22% | 20% | 11% |
| Finland | 96% | 59% | 18% | 15% | 7% |
| Czech Republic | 86% | 34% | 10% | 7% | 2% |
| Switzerland | 80% | 26% | 7% | 5% | 1% |
| Germany | 74% | 19% | 5% | 3% | <1% |
| Denmark | 54% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| Slovakia | 53% | 8% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Latvia | 33% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| France | 15% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Italy | 10% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
**Just like in the women’s tournament, either Canada or the U.S. is expected to win gold. But the men’s tournament isn’t nearly as top-heavy as the women’s. Sweden, Finland, the Czech Republic, Switzerland and Germany are all medal contenders, too.
**Tournament Rules and Format
- 12 teams divided into three groups, each playing every team in their group once.
- Group winners advance directly to the quarterfinals, along with the best second-place finisher.
- Remaining eight teams compete in a play-in round, with the four winners advancing to the quarterfinals.
**Schedule and Game Forecasts
- All dates and times are local.
**Group A
- Switzerland
- Canada
- Czech Republic
- France
**Group B
- Sweden
- Finland
- Slovakia
- Italy
**Group C
- United States
- Germany
- Denmark
- Latvia
**Methodology
- Statistical model using player ratings to estimate team strength.
- Simulates tournament 30,000 times using the Monte Carlo method.
